Minnesota
1) Paul
2) Santorum
3) Romney
4) Gingrich

Missouri
1) Santorum
2) Romney
3) Paul
4) Gingrich

2) Mitt Romney

3) Newt Gingrich

4) Rick Santorum

2) Paul in a bit of a surprise

3) Gingrich

4) Santorum

2) Newt

3) Santorum

4) Paul

2) Mitt Romney – Mitt Romney goes from winning being the first candidate to win Iowa and New Hampshire and having a big win in South Carolina to losing Iowa, winning New Hampshire, and losing South Carolina.  Will there be some panic?

3)  Ron Paul - Ron Paul has taken it easy with South Carolina, a state he did not expect to do well in.  As has always been the case, he does better than the polls show to get a strong third.

4) Rick Santorum – Another weak showing but in a state he should have been able to do well in.  The social conservatives are lining up behind Newt and Santorum might as well withdraw from the race… but he won’t.

2) Ron Paul - A poll was released recently that listed Ron Paul as one of the strongest candidates in the general election.  Paul will poll higher than previously believed.

3) Jon Huntsman - Huntsman will finish third, but won’t be as close to second as some had predicted.  While he needed to finish top 3 to get a better position, underperforming may actually hurt.

4) Newt Gingrich - A fourth place finish will prove Santorum was just another flavor of the week.  Gingrich will get stronger in South Carolina and Santorum will drop.

5) Rick Santorum – Santorum really falls flat if he finishes here.

6) Rick Perry - Perry will finish weakly before South Carolina.

1) Rick Santorum – With many potential caucus-goers having not made up their minds as of yet and with so many willing to change their vote, Rick Santorum really stands to gain.  He has hit his stride at the best possible time.  No one has the ability to come at him now that he is surging due to a lack of time and he could very possibly become the anti-Romney.  The question is this.  Will his statements saying he would bomb Iran as president help or hurt?

2) Ron Paul - If the anti-Romney does not consolidate behind Santorum, Paul is definitely able to move to the top spot.  That being said, I think it will lineup behind Santorum.  Polls cannot accurately determine how many Democrat cross-overs will vote in the GOP caucus.  If it is higher than normal, Paul can really have a shot.  If it is lower than expected, Paul will have to rely solely on the ability of his supporters to turn out more so than the supporters of the other candidates.

3) Mitt Romney – Romney voters really have the least amount of reason to turnout.  He does not bring any type of excitement whether it be that positive excitement that Romney gives nor does he have the excitement to get votes against another candidate.  The perceived frontrunner has the ability to take a major hit or he could remain at the top in Iowa.

4) Rick Perry - Within a point in polling with Newt, Perry will get some of the undecideds coming his way whereas Newt is still heading downward.  The lack of organization will hurt.

5) Newt Gingrich -  Still falling, Newt will find himself just ahead of Bachmann when the votes are counted.  He is hurting his totals by saying he doesn’t think he will win.  This could help put Perry ahead of him.

6) Michelle Bachmann - Unable to gain traction since winning the Ames Straw Poll, Bachmann will finish last out of the candidates who have run in Iowa.

7) Jon Huntsman - Huntsman chose not to be active in Iowa.  It will show in the results.

1) Ron Paul has a small group of supporters.
2) Ron Paul does not have any appeal to the average GOP voter.
3) Ron Paul is getting his votes from Democrats trying to influence the GOP nomination.
4) Ron Paul followers will not vote for any other GOP nominee.
5) A Ron Paul 3rd Party run will destroy the GOP chances of beating Obama.

My question is this. If 1-4 is true, why would people worry that such a small amount of people who wouldn’t support the GOP nominee anyway might vote for a 3rd Party candidate?

However you want to look at it, 9-9-9 is a plan that deals solely with tax policy.  It does nothing about spending.  It also creates a new tax stream.  It doesn’t replace one.  What we need is someone who is going to CUT spending and government.  What we need is someone who is going to make sure taxes are LOWERED, not simply rearranged.

Cain’s campaign is also a complete disaster.  He is a likeable guy.  This is why he continues to be at the top though it is obvious he doesn’t know a whole heck of a lot.  Here is a guy who is running for President of the United States who didn’t know China had nukes, nor did he know anything about “the right of return” in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.  He also didn’t know what the term “neoconservative” meant.  He also says an electric fence needs to be built along the Mexico border, then changes the story to say it was a joke, and then revisited the idea of it possibly being electrified.  Cain said he would not allow a Muslim to serve under him but later flip-flopped.  He said a local area had the right to overrule the freedom of worship (which I attribute to an overzealous attempt to seize on the 10th Amendment), and has also said that state governments have a right to limit the 2nd Amendment (see last note).  [The 10th Amendment actually says anything not mentioned in the Constitution is left to the states and the people... Not that the 1st or 2nd Amendment is left to the states or the people.]  There was also the misspeak concerning abortion.  It is actually humorous that “strength and clarity” is this guys campaign mantra.

Tons of people are saying we don’t need a professional politician but that doesn’t mean we need Ronald McDonald in the White House.  People are fine with politicians but we don’t like the political games.  We do like the idea that politicians at least know what issues are about even if we disagree with what their stance is on an issue.

Now comes the race card.  Cain is not being hit because of his race.  He is being hit because he is ahead in an election.  He is also being hit because he is an easy target.

I am not down with those defending Cain.  Cain does not need to be defended.  Cain needs to defend himself and say those things did not happen.  Motivation does not matter.  What matters is whether or not Cain sexually harassed females who were working with him.